The economy started 2006 extremely strong in spite of record oil prices and rising interes
t rates. An unusually mild winter across much of the country is part of the story, but the lack of worry by consumers and business about oil prices is an even bigger part. The question remains, will we continue to glide down the economic highway or slip on oil？
Oil prices have raised overall consumer prices and cut into household purchasing power. So far the higher costs haven't deterred(阻止) buying, even buying of cars and other energy-sensitive items. The major reason for the lack of reaction is that oil is less important to the economy than it once was. Oil, which produced 45% of world energy in 1971, accounted for only 35% in 2003, with increases in nuclear and natural gas use making up the difference.
GM, Ford, and Chrysler suffered as buyers shifted to more fuel-efficient vehicles from Toyota and Honda, but the shift was hot pronounced. Admittedly, light truck sales are holding up in part because manufacturers are offering large discounts to "move the metal", but the fact that buyers are responding to those incentives shows they aren't too scared of gas prices.
Americans continue to spend more than they earn, but gasoline prices will have an effect. Although the April chain store results suggest gasoline prices aren't hurting much yet, eventually Americans will be forced to realize that they have to slow down. We expect the economy to slow in the second half of the year as the impact of higher oil prices sinks in. How much the economy slows will depend on how high oil prices remain. We expect some drop in oil prices by yearend, but I have been saying that for so long even I am starting not to believe it.
The anger against the oil companies is clearly misplaced. Exxon and friends control only a small share of world oil reserves. Most are now in the hands of state-owned oil companies. The recent move by Bolivia to nationalize its industry is only the latest in a long line of similar actions. The history of these enterprises is one of severe underinvestment and mismanagement, which tends to reduce supply and keep prices high. The risk on oil prices is primarily on the high side of our forecast.
Although I think oil prices will drop back in the medium term, to address my serious worries, I'm buying my wife a bike for Mothers' Day.
The economy at the beginning of 2006 is not affected by the high oil price mainly because ______.
A．the warm winter requires less oil to run the heaters
B．the warm winter promotes consumption, across the country
C．people believe that the oil price will drop in near future
D．people don't think the high price will make much of a difference
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